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Re: Did Sean Gorman's maps show the cascading vulnerability in Ohio?
On Sunday 17 August 2003 06:28 pm, Having folded space, the Third Stage Guild Navigator said: > So, the US Government wants to classify Sean Gorman's student project. > The question is did Mr. Gorman's maps divulge the vulnerability in the > East Coast power grid that resulted in the blackouts this week? > > Would it be better to know about these vulnerabilities, and do something > about them; or is it better to keep them secret until they fail in a > catastrophic way? Please correct me if I misunderstand this, but I have a different take on all of this. Power Cos. have for some time traded power in a futures market system. Org A buys x gigawatts at an attractive price to be delivered at a specific time in the future from Org B, via the grid. Org C is facing a brown/blackout today so they are highly motivated to pay any price; Org A's contract terms with Org B fit Org C's needs so Org A makes a killing. Given that the players were producers, buyers and sellers of the same product this creates no incentaive to build out additional capasity. Quite different from say, Hog futures, were the supply side and demand side are not the same person. According the the NPR report I heard on this, the money to be made here is huge provided there was just enough power or not quite enough. So there were not market checks and ballances. having additional capasity on hand, in this system, drives down price in a futures market. So back on Sean's question, maps did not divulge this; at least not the primary cause. I see the primary cause as economic. It seems to me we are seeking a mechanical cause instead of looking at the fauly business model that allowed this to happen.