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Re: Internet 2010 - Predictions for 2010 from a Content Forum and NANOG 37 in San Jose

  • From: William B. Norton
  • Date: Wed Jun 21 20:21:39 2006
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Wow - so many private messages surrounding this. I'll summarize and
group the comments across the predictions below, but first answer some
of the questions I received.

One suggestion was to bury these in a timevault to be opened at NANOG
in 2010. Another suggestion was to bury these where I want the crops
to grow. Thanks for that suggestion.

Of course, predictions are not certain as this person put it: "Unlike
market focus groups which pick the color of the product, the error
rate of groups of humans predicting the future is multiplicative"

Several of you asked who provided the data.  These were engineers,
peering coordinators, some Director and VP level folks, network
planners and architects from Content and ISP Companies that you
probably all have heard about of and a handful of those you have not.
There was no glue sniffing involved.

Keep in mind too that to answer the initial question, the events had
to be both *plausible *and* remarkable* to the group assembled around
the table in 2010. I personally think many of these in the list fit
the criteria, but a few of the usual suspects said that they believe
almost none of these things are plausible (Stating this politely).
Below are a couple data points from the field surrounding the
predictions for 2010.

Content Provider Predictions for 2010
------------------------------------------------------
Here is the question I put to a group of Content Providers at a content forum:

"We are sitting around this table in 2010 and we are commenting how
remarkable the last few years have been, specifically that:"
1.      Video streaming volume has grown 100 fold
2.      Last mile wireless replaced local loop

These first two were echod by both the Content and ISP folks with a
variation only regarding the degree. Personally I don't see the local
loop going away in the next 4 years but a new wireless offering that
is being taken up big time is possible. Video traffic for YouTube was
said at the Peering BOF to grow 20%/month so there is a possibly
compounding growth rate here, so maybe we would debate the degree of
and length of the scaling growth. Clearly 100 fold increase would be
remarkable.

3.      Botnets (DDOS attacks) are still an issue

I'm surprised noone protested this one - if botnets are still a
problem for the much large capacity 2010 internet then we may have a
much more significant problem to deal with.

4.      Non-mechanical (i.e. Flash) Drives replaced internal hard
drives on laptops

One comment that this is not realisitic.

5.      10% of all cell phones are now video phones
6.      We have cell phones that we actually like

There appears to be debate surrounding this one - the person positing
this believes all the cell phones on the market suck (everyone has
some complaint about whatever phone and provider they have) and that
there will be a PDA + service that overcomes these objections and
become the new thing.

7.      The U.S. is insignificant traffic wise relative to the rest of the world
8.      Most popular question discussed around the table: 'How do we
operate business in China?'

9.      No online privacy. And the gov't watches everything
<anonymous note to me>
the future is now:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/06/21/BUG9VJHB9C1.DTL
and
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2006/06/21/att_nsa/

10.     18-25 demographic is best reached w/ads on the Internet
11.     Next Gen 3D on-line Social Networks are so successful
12.     No physical network interfaces are needed
For laptops, phones, desktops, upto the DSL modem that's certainly the
case today. Beyond that we are into the wireless last mile stuff.

13.     We will big brother ourselves (video cams 'who scraped my car?')
14.     So many special purpose Internet apps – in car google maps, live
traffic updates, etc.
15.     So much of our personal information is on the net
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060620/ap_on_bi_ge/police_phone_data

16.     Video IM emerged as a dominant app
17.     P2P will emerge for non-pirated videos – DRM in place and embraced
Most comments back suggested that the studios don't move this fast
releasing their crown jewels to unfamiliar and historically shameful
technology.

18.     Voice calls are free, bundled with other things
Softbank in Japan does this now at least to other Softbank customers,
and pennies per minute elsewhere.  Come on, phone calls are almost
free already!

[some additional notable predictions from this group, but did not
receive simple majority validation]
IPTV replaces cable TV
IPv6 is adopted
Massive Internet Collapse – Metcalfe regurgitates his column
Flexible screen deployment
SPAM is no longer a problem in 2010
Windows embraces distributed computing
Net is not Neutral
Powerline Broadband emerges
FTTH massive deployment

Internet Service Providers Predictions for 2010
------------------------------------------------------------------
We didn't get to do this at the Peering BOF at NANOG, but I did some
table discussions outside in the hallways. There there was no voting
so I am listing a subset of the predictions that seemed to resonate
among a couple dozen or so folks at the hallway tables where question
was discussed:

"We are sitting around this table in 2010 at NANOG and we are
commenting how remarkable the last few years have been, specifically
that:"
1.      We have 10G network interface(s) on laptops (I assumed wired, but
someone else might have been thinking wireless)
OK OK ! 10G wireless to the laptop is probably not plausible by 2010.

2.      $5/mbps is the common/standard price of transit (other prediction
was $30/mbps)
Even the harh critics thought this was likely, the $5 transit price
availibilty across the US

3.      Internet traffic is now so heavily localized (as in 75% of
telephone calls are across town type of thing but for the Internet)
4.      Ad revenue will cover the cost/or subsidize significantly of DSL
5.      90% of Internet bits will be video traffic
6.      VoIP traffic exceeds the PSTN traffic
7.      Private networks predominantly migrate to overlays over the Internet
8.      Wireless Internet Service Providers (WISPs) are serious competitive
threat to DSL and Cable Internet
9.      Sprint is bought by Time Warner
10.     Cable companies form cabal & hookup with Sprint or Level 3
11.     Government passes Net Neutrality Law of some flavor
12.     Earthlink successfully reinvents themselves as Wireless Metro
player in Response to ATT and Verizon
13.     40% paid or subscription as opposed to Content Click Ads. Like
Cable Company channel packages, folks will flock to subscriptions for
Internet Content packages.
14.     RIAA proposes surcharge on network access (like Canada tax on blank CDs)
15.     NetFlix conversion to Internet delivery of movies to Tivo or PC,
or open source set top box
16.     ISPs will be in pain
Comment: "As opposed to now when we are living high on the hog?"

17.     Last mile (fiber, wireless, …) in metro will be funded by municipal bonds
18.     Death of TV ads, Death of broadcast TV, Tivo & Tivo like
appliances all use the Internet with emergence of targeted ads based
on demographic profiles of viewer
19.     Google in charge of 20% of ALL ads (TV, Radio, Billboards, …)
20.     Ubiquitous wifi in every metro with wifi roaming agreements
The comments back said that this will certainly not be done by 2010
but maybe some initial movement towards this goal.

21.     Congestion issues drive selective customer acceptance of partial
transit offerings
22.     IPTV fully embraced by cable cos – VOD – no need for VDR and ala
carte video services replace analog frequency
23.     Near simultaneous release of movies to the theaters, DVDs for the
home, PPV, and Internet download to meet needs of different
demographics. (Some get dressed up for theater, others have kids and
can't leave home, others wantto watch on the flight to Tokyo – all
watch the new release movie at about the same time)

Video Peering
--------------------
For what it is worth, some of this resonates with the Peering BOF
Video Peering discussion. With YouTube pushing 20Gbps after only one
year in existance, and with the 30+ companies that often chase a high
profile market such as theirs, we have a potential additional Internet
load approaching 600Gbps!  YouTube at the BOF said that their traffic
is growing at about 20% per month, so it may be reasonable to expect
their traffic to double a couple times over the next year. Even if you
discount the competitors traffic flows, video still appears as a
*massive* traffic volume coming into the Peering Ecosystem over the
next bunch of months.
There has been some dicussion on various IRC channels asking "why is
video peering" separately noted from regular old "Content" being
peered. I tend to differentiate it solely because the volume of this
traffic is so large and expected to grow as codecs march to convey
HDTV quality video over the net, either on demand or streamed to a box
for buffered delivery or downloaded. The point is the traffic volume
for this type of peered traffic is so large and it will grow over
time, which makes it interesting to watch from a peering research
perspective.

And yes, they are willing to peer the traffic for free so you eyeball
networks and they (YouTube) don't have to pay transit fees on the
traffic.

Bill
--
//------------------------------------------------
// William B. Norton <wbn@equinix.com>
// Co-Founder and Chief Technical Liaison, Equinix
// GSM Mobile: 650-315-8635
// Skype, Y!IM: williambnorton


--
//------------------------------------------------
// William B. Norton <wbn@equinix.com>
// Co-Founder and Chief Technical Liaison, Equinix
// GSM Mobile: 650-315-8635
// Skype, Y!IM: williambnorton