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Re: The Choice: IPv4 Exhaustion or Transition to IPv6
Thus spake "Iljitsch van Beijnum" <iljitsch@xxxxxxxxx>
The Comcasts of this world burn addresses by the millions. If they can't have new ones for (almost) free, they'll have to stick multiple customers behind a single IPv4 address. If you have to share your IP address with several of your neighbors, it becomes attractive to add IPv6 to the mix to make peer to peer stuff, including VoIP, work more reliably. QED.
More likely, one day $BIG_ISP is going to go to ARIN with justification for another /12 or so and they're going to get a few hundred /20s instead because that's all that's left. Lather, rinse, repeat, and watch the v4 DFZ implode. This will happen _before_ RIR exhaustion hits.
Hopefully, the $BIG_ISP folks of the world see this coming and are starting to tell CPE vendors that they will not buy/resell anything that doesn't do v6 after some fixed date. The abject lack of v6 support in ISP-supplied CPE devices shows that if they are, that date is not yet imminent.
It's great we all have v6-capable hosts and core routers now, but that isn't enough; it's the CPE boxes (firewalls, DSL modems, etc.) that're going to eat us all alive in 3-4 years if things don't change Real Soon Now(tm). Kudos to Apple for being the first vendor to wake up; let's hope the others follow their lead in time to make a difference.
Stephen Sprunk "Those people who think they know everything
CCIE #3723 are a great annoyance to those of us who do."
K5SSS --Isaac Asimov