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Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

  • From: Marshall Eubanks
  • Date: Fri Apr 18 16:50:35 2008

On Apr 18, 2008, at 4:15 PM, Scott Francis wrote:

> I find claims that "soon everything will be HD" somewhat dubious
> (working for a company that produces video for online distribution) -
> although certainly not as eyebrow-raising as "in 3 years' time, 20
> typical households will generate more traffic than the entire Internet

Maybe if "typical household" is defined as "close relatives of Peter  

Either that, or he meant 30 instead of 3.


> today". Is there some secret plan to put 40Gb ethernet to "typical
> households" in the next 3 years that I haven't heard about? I don't
> have accurate figures on how much traffic "the entire Internet"
> generates, but I'm fairly certain that 5% of it could not be generated
> by any single household regardless of equipment installed, torrents
> traded or videos downloaded. Even given a liberal application of
> Moore's Law, I doubt that would be the case in 2010 either.
> Does anybody know what the basis for Mr. Cicconi's claims were (if
> they even had a basis at all)? Internal reports from ATT engineering?
> Perusal of industry news sources? IRC? A lot of scary numbers were
> tossed into the air without any mention of how they were derived. A
> cynical person might be tempted to think it was all a scare tactic to
> soften up legislators for the next wave of "reasonable network
> management" practices that just happen to have significant revenue
> streams attached to them ...
> -- 
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