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Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

  • From: Stephen John Smoogen
  • Date: Fri Apr 18 16:37:54 2008

On Fri, Apr 18, 2008 at 2:15 PM, Scott Francis <[email protected]> wrote:
>  I find claims that "soon everything will be HD" somewhat dubious
>  (working for a company that produces video for online distribution) -

I think that is based off the all American TV going to HDD that is
supposed to happen in 2009. ( I think I read that currently only 40%
of Americans have HDD TV's and the 60% were not going to buy one until
it became too late. )

>  although certainly not as eyebrow-raising as "in 3 years' time, 20
>  typical households will generate more traffic than the entire Internet
>  today". Is there some secret plan to put 40Gb ethernet to "typical
>  households" in the next 3 years that I haven't heard about? I don't
>  have accurate figures on how much traffic "the entire Internet"
>  generates, but I'm fairly certain that 5% of it could not be generated
>  by any single household regardless of equipment installed, torrents
>  traded or videos downloaded. Even given a liberal application of
>  Moore's Law, I doubt that would be the case in 2010 either.
>  Does anybody know what the basis for Mr. Cicconi's claims were (if
>  they even had a basis at all)? Internal reports from ATT engineering?
>  Perusal of industry news sources? IRC? A lot of scary numbers were

Maybe he has been trading on "the Internet is going to die" since 1981
and his shorts on the Internet are coming due in 2010? I mean this
sounds as much like all the other pump and dump things I have read :).

>  tossed into the air without any mention of how they were derived. A
>  cynical person might be tempted to think it was all a scare tactic to
>  soften up legislators for the next wave of "reasonable network
>  management" practices that just happen to have significant revenue
>  streams attached to them ...
>  --
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Stephen J Smoogen. -- CSIRT/Linux System Administrator
How far that little candle throws his beams! So shines a good deed
in a naughty world. = Shakespeare. "The Merchant of Venice"

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