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NANOG Meeting Presentation Abstract

Why Smart People Do Stupid Things: Submarine Cables, Network Oversupply, and the Inexorable Decline of IP Transit Prices
Meeting: NANOG62
Date / Time: 2014-10-08 12:00pm - 12:30pm
This item is webcast
Room:  
Presenters: Speakers:

Tim Stronge, TeleGeography

Tim Stronge is Vice President of Research at TeleGeography. His areas of expertise include international voice traffic, terrestrial and submarine cable systems, and international bandwidth markets. Since joining TeleGeography in 1996, Tim has served as a principal analyst in most areas of research, including network infrastructure, bandwidth demand modeling, cross-border traffic flows, and telecom services pricing. He holds a Master´s degree in International Economics from Johns Hopkins University and a B.A. from the College of William and Mary.
Abstract: Submarine cable operators marched at the front of the telecom bust parade in 2000-2001. Oversupply and quick price drops led to billions of dollars of write-offs by undersea cable investors. Arguably, their loss was the Internet's gain. The capacity oversupply that led to bandwidth price declines also enabled much cheaper IP transit prices and lower peering costs.

NANOG attendees--especially those that buy IP transit--may be happy to learn that submarine cable developers are at it again. Several new networks are in the works, and not all of them make a great deal of economic sense. On the surface, it appears that many of the same stupid mistakes seem to be happening again for many of the same dumb reasons.

This presentation will explore the connection between undersea fiber-optic development and IP transit prices. The presentation will share results from primary research findings addressing the following questions:

* Where is new infrastructure investment occurring? Many changes are afoot behind the scenes.
* Why is there new cable investment occurring? Is it truly a case of people doing stupid things?
* Will this new investment push down prices?
* Where are prices falling the fastest? Where are prices barely falling at all?
* Will we ever reach a global bandwidth "singularity" in which capacity will be priced the same no matter the location?
Files: pdfWhy Smart People Do Stupid Things(PDF)
youtubeWhy Smart People Do Stupid Things
Sponsors: None.

Back to NANOG62 agenda.

NANOG62 Abstracts

  • Security Track
    Speakers:
    John Kristoff, Team Cymru ; Krassimir Tzvetanov, A10 Networks;
  • Security Track
    Speakers:
    John Kristoff, Team Cymru ; Krassimir Tzvetanov, A10 Networks;
  • DNS Track
    Moderators:
    Paul Ebersman, Comcast; Speakers:
    Glen WileyVerisign; .
    Tim WicinskiSalesforce; .
    Dave LevinUniversity of Maryland; .
  • DNS Track
    Moderators:
    Paul Ebersman, Comcast; Speakers:
    Glen WileyVerisign; .
    Tim WicinskiSalesforce; .
    Dave LevinUniversity of Maryland; .
  • DNS Track
    Moderators:
    Paul Ebersman, Comcast; Speakers:
    Glen WileyVerisign; .
    Tim WicinskiSalesforce; .
    Dave LevinUniversity of Maryland; .
  • DNS Track
    Moderators:
    Paul Ebersman, Comcast; Speakers:
    Glen WileyVerisign; .
    Tim WicinskiSalesforce; .
    Dave LevinUniversity of Maryland; .
  • Research Track
    Moderators:
    Manish KarirMerit Network; .
    Speakers:
    Robert LychevGeorgia Tech; .
    Maria KonteGeorgia Tech; .
    Sean DonovanGeorgia Institute of Technology; .
    Nithin MichaelCornell University; .
    Hyojoon KimGeorgia Tech; .
  • Research Track
    Moderators:
    Manish KarirMerit Network; .
    Speakers:
    Robert LychevGeorgia Tech; .
    Maria KonteGeorgia Tech; .
    Sean DonovanGeorgia Institute of Technology; .
    Nithin MichaelCornell University; .
    Hyojoon KimGeorgia Tech; .
  • Research Track
    Moderators:
    Manish KarirMerit Network; .
    Speakers:
    Robert LychevGeorgia Tech; .
    Maria KonteGeorgia Tech; .
    Sean DonovanGeorgia Institute of Technology; .
    Nithin MichaelCornell University; .
    Hyojoon KimGeorgia Tech; .
  • Research Track
    Moderators:
    Manish KarirMerit Network; .
    Speakers:
    Robert LychevGeorgia Tech; .
    Maria KonteGeorgia Tech; .
    Sean DonovanGeorgia Institute of Technology; .
    Nithin MichaelCornell University; .
    Hyojoon KimGeorgia Tech; .
  • Research Track
    Moderators:
    Manish KarirMerit Network; .
    Speakers:
    Robert LychevGeorgia Tech; .
    Maria KonteGeorgia Tech; .
    Sean DonovanGeorgia Institute of Technology; .
    Nithin MichaelCornell University; .
    Hyojoon KimGeorgia Tech; .
  • Research Track
    Moderators:
    Manish KarirMerit Network; .
    Speakers:
    Robert LychevGeorgia Tech; .
    Maria KonteGeorgia Tech; .
    Sean DonovanGeorgia Institute of Technology; .
    Nithin MichaelCornell University; .
    Hyojoon KimGeorgia Tech; .

 

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